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May 25, 2005
Heading to California? Check earthquake predictions at the USGS
The USGS recently unveiled a program that makes predictions about earthquake shaking in California. The program is designed to increase earthquake awareness and preparedness. The site has maps of California, updated daily, which predict the probability of shaking within the next 24 hours. While not claiming the ability to predict the future, they do state the following:
Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major [earthquake] occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.
[You can also see current Pacific tsunami advisories. -ed.]
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I don't understand this. If they can't predict an earthquake what good does saying there is a x change that an earth quake is going to happen in the next 24 hours. What is going to make the numbers change, an actual earthquake which would lead one to believe that aftershocks, etc are soon to happen in the following days to weeks?